Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A ridge of high pressure should bring a mix of sun and cloud for Friday. Freezing levels are expected to reach around 2500m and alpine winds are forecast to be strong from SW by the end of the day. On Saturday, a weak storm system reaches the region. Models are currently showing 5-15mm between Saturday morning and Sunday morning. Freezing levels on Saturday are expected to stay around 2000m during the day but are forecast to fall to below 1000m by Sunday morning meaning rain may switch to snow at many elevations. During the storm, alpine winds are forecast to be strong from the SW. On Sunday, the storm should exit and a mix of sun and cloud can be expected with light winds.

On Thursday, a natural cornice failure triggered a wind slab on the slope below. On Tuesday, loose wet avalanches and cornice failures from steep sun exposed slopes were reported. There have been some concerning avalanches in the neighboring Columbia regions including natural slabs releasing to ground and reactive wind slabs over facets being remotely triggered.  On Friday, sunny and warm conditions are expected to destabilize the snowpack. Large avalanches have isolated potential to release on deep weak layers. Sluffing is expected from steep sun-exposed slopes and the triggering of wind slabs is possible in the alpine.

A moist snow surface is being reported to around 2500m on solar aspects and 1800m on north aspects. Wind slabs are being reported in the alpine and may be overlying the early-March crust/facet layer. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer can be found about a metre below the surface in deeper snowpack areas. The mid-January surface hoar can be found below that. These layers have gained significant strength and have been dormant for several weeks but have the potential to wake-up with the current warm temperatures.