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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 17th, 2016–Dec 18th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Columbia.

Cranking ridgetop winds will likely build fresh and touchy wind slabs.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

A series of Pacific frontal systems will hit the Interior region starting tonight and continue through next week. Each system will be a bit stronger bringing moderate to heavy snow amounts and strong winds. Sunday: Cloudy, alpine temperatures -11 with West winds 20-50 km/h. New snow 5-10 cm.Monday: Snow 15-25 cm with alpine temperatures near -11 and ridgetop winds southwest 30-70 km/h.Tuesday: Snow 5-10 cm with alpine temperatures -10 and ridgetop winds southwest 20-40km/h.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, isolated wind slabs and sluffing up to size 1.5 were reported. With increased winds on Sunday new wind slab problems will be  the primary concern. Storm slabs will likely build on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Due to recent cold and clear conditions a variety of surface snow exists from faceted (sugary) crystals to surface hoar crystals up to 8 mm in size. Forecast new snow will likely have a poor bond  to these surfaces. Variable wind effect has created wind slabs in isolated areas at upper elevations. A buried surface hoar layer may exist down 30-40cm. The depth of the mid-November crust is also variable across the region. Reports have the crust down between 100-200 cm and snowpack tests have produced a variety of results from moderate and sudden to hard and resistant, and in some cases no result. If you dig down to the crust, watch for facets developing above and/or below. This may provide a weak layer above a smooth sliding surface in the future.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Forecast winds are increasing in strength and building new wind slabs. Watch for conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2