Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 13th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.
bchristie,
Avalanche Canada
Avoid thin, rocky start zones and convex rolls. Go high enough to avoid moist, heavy snow, and stay low enough to avoid windslab, and you could have a pretty good time. Southwest wind continues to blow, and temperatures are rising.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.
Weather Forecast
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy becoming overcast. 0-5 cm of snow expected. Moderate southwest wind trending to extreme at higher elevations. Freezing level rising to around 800 m.Â
Friday: Cloudy. 3-6 cm of snow expected. Moderate southwest wind trending to extreme at higher elevations. Freezing level rising to around 1500 m.
Friday overnight and Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. 5-10 cm of snow expected. Strong southwest wind, trending to extreme at higher elevations. Freezing levels around 1000-1200 m. Closer to 500 m in the north end of the region.
Sunday: Cloudy. 5-15 cm of snow expected. Strong southwest wind, trending to extreme at higher elevations. Freezing level around 500-750 m.Â
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday, our Northwest field team saw a size 2, rider-triggered windslab avalanche on a northeast aspect in the alpine. The avalanche looks like it was triggered from a thin, rocky spot below a convex roll. See their Mountain Information Network (MIN) post here for photos and more details.
On Tuesday, a natural icefall triggered size 2.5 wind slab was reported on a NE aspect. At lower elevations closer to the coast where it was warmer, loose wet avalanches were observed. This MIN report and this one describe some recent wind slab activity.
Snowpack Summary
20-40 cm of recent storm snow has been redistributed by periodic moderate to strong SW winds which has formed reactive wind slabs and created a heavily wind affected snow surface in the alpine.
30-50 cm below the snow surface, Faceting from the prolonged cold temperatures may increase the reactivity of the recently formed wind slabs which could end up persisting for longer than normal.Â
With the mild temperatures and ongoing wind, cornices are reported to be growing larger.Â
The base of the snowpack is composed of crusts and weak faceted grains, particularly in thin snowpack areas. While these layers have generally gone dormant in the region, they still have the possibility of waking up with new snow load or warming, and wind slab avalanches may still have the potential to step down to these deeper layers in isolated areas.Â
Terrain and Travel
- Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
- Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.
- Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Recently formed wind slabs are expected to remain reactive to human triggering in exposed terrain. These slabs may overlie a weak faceted surface from the extended cold period and could remain reactive to human triggering for longer than normal.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Wet loose avalanches are possible on steep low elevation slopes if the temperature is above freezing.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 14th, 2022 4:00PM
