Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Heavy snowfall commences Sunday and continues overnight. Weather forecast models are not agreeing on the exact timing or intensity of the storm, so keep a constant eye on weather and snowpack conditions if you are in the backcountry. 

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. 0-15cm of snow on the immediate coast, with 15-30 cm in the Skypilot area, as the storm will be moving down from the North. Strong southwest wind, trending to extreme at higher elevations, possibly above 100 km/h. Treeline temperature around -7 C. 

SUNDAY: Overcast. 20-50 cm of snow expected. Extreme southwest winds. Freezing level rising to 800 m, but due to heavy snowfall, the snow/rain line could be a few hundred meters lower.

MONDAY: Overcast. 10-40 cm overnight and another 5-15 cm through the day. Strong southwest winds. Freezing level between 100 and 400 m. 

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. 15-25 cm of snow expected. Strong southwest winds. Freezing level around 400m.

With heavy snowfall, high wind, and warming temperatures, we expect many large to very large natural avalanches. Human triggered avalanches will be very likely in these conditions.

No new avalanches were reported on Friday.

On Thursday, this great Mountain Information Network (MIN) post reported small natural and rider triggered avalanches in the snow that fell overnight on Wednesday. A professional operation also reported a similar cycle of loose dry avalanches that propagated further, up to 50 m.

30-70 cm of new snow is forecast to fall as temperatures rise and strong to extreme southwest winds blow. This is a recipe for unstable avalanche conditions.

This new snow falls on top of a variety of cold, low density, wind affected, or facetted snow surfaces, and it is not expected to bond well. 

The weekly North Shore Rescue conditions report paints a great picture of what the snowpack looked like before it got walloped, and how it might react to the new load.

This Mountain Information Network (MIN) post paints a great picture of conditions on Thursday in areas accessed by the Sea to Sky Gondola. All of these surfaces could be sliding layers for the new storm snow.

The midpack is mostly settled and strong, with a variety of crusts down 100-200 cm. 

• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
• Avoid areas with overhead hazard.
• Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.
• Be alert to conditions that change throughout the day.
• Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.