Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
While natural avalanche activity may be tapering, human triggered avalanches are still likely.
Stick to conservative terrain, and be aware of who is above and below you.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Tuesday, a group triggered a size 3 in the Camp West area, failing on the Feb 3rd persistent weak layer.
Avalanche control just West of the park Friday produced numerous large avalanches, including a size 4 on the Feb 3rd crust, 1.5m deep x 800m wide.
Overnight Friday 2 large avalanches from Mt Macdonald put dust and branches on the highway.
We continue to see daily reports in the region of human triggered avalanches on the Feb 3rd layer - many failing in small forest openings.
Snowpack Summary
We have ~140cms of settled (storm)snow from this weeks storms.
Moderate to strong south winds loaded lee features during the storm. Winds switched to the North overnight, expect reverse loading in the alpine and treeline.
Below the storm snow, a layer of facetted/sugary crystals sits on the Feb 3rd crust forming a significant persistent weak layer and will be the main layer of concern in the coming days.
Weather Summary
Sunday the weather will remain unsettled before a general clearing/cooling trend.
Tonight: Cloudy with scattered flurries. S wind 15-25km/hr. Alpine low -11°C.
Sun: Cloudy with Sunny periods. Wind: SW 15-25. Low -15 °C, High -13 °C.
Mon: Cloudy with sunny periods & isolated flurries. Light SW wind. Low -15 °C, High -13 °C.
Tuesday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Light SE ridgetop winds. Alpine Low -17°C, High -14°C.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.
- Remote triggering is a concern, avoid terrain where triggering slopes from below is possible
- Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
This crust-facet combo(Feb 3rd) was created by an extended cold, clear period without snow earlier this month. Up to 140cms now sits on the persistent weak layer which remains primed for human triggering (see FB video). If triggered resulting avalanches could be very large in size.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 4
Storm Slabs
40-60cm of snow Wednesday, accompanied by strong winds, has created fresh slabs. A Northerly wind switch will build new slabs in atypical places and any daytime heating from the intense spring sun could increase the likelihood of triggering.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5