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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 25th, 2012–Feb 26th, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Columbia.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Cloudy. Gradually cooling temperatures and clearing skies as a ridge of high pressure approaches. A few flurries. Light northerly winds. Freezing level valley floor.Monday: Clear with valley cloud. No precipitation. Light westerly winds. Remaining cold.Tuesday: Flurries on western slopes. Light-moderate south-westerly winds. Becoming slightly milder.

Avalanche Summary

A large natural avalanche cycle occurred on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Slab avalanches were reported up to Size 3.5 on all aspects and at all elevations. There were also numerous reports of skier triggered and remotely triggered avalanches on a variety of aspects. The potential for human triggered avalanches remains high and it may be possible to trigger an avalanche from the bottom of a slope.

Snowpack Summary

Deep wind slabs have formed on a variety of aspects at all elevations. Up to 1m of new snow now sits on the February 16th surface hoar layer. The February 8th interface is now down 100-140cm. This layer is a combination of weak layers: In most locations it marks a widespread surface hoar layer. On steep south- and west-facing aspects, a sun crust that formed during the drought was also buried on Feb. 8th. This crust probably has a bit of faceting below it too, meaning that most terrain in the region has a weak layer in the upper snowpack. These buried weaknesses have made conditions very tricky with the potential for triggering in low-angled terrain and from a distance. Large cornices remain widespread throughout the region.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Several buried weaknesses including surface hoar and/or a crust are ripe for triggering by the weight of a person. It may be possible to trigger avalanches in surprisingly low-angled terrain or from a distance.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 7

Wind Slabs

Dense and weak wind slabs are likely in exposed lee and cross-loaded terrain at all elevations.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 8

Cornices

Cornices have grown very large. They may fail naturally, potentially triggering very large and destructive avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 8