Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Thursday we may see short periods of dryer weather, and dropping freezing levels. Don't let this fool you, there is more, moisture, wind and warmer temperatures headed into the region Thursday night or Friday morning. I have fair confidence of the timing and intensity. Friday we may see another period of dryer conditions, with lowering freezing levels possibly falling to 800m or lower. A strong frontal system will move into the Interior Saturday. Depending on the track, the Purcells may see moderate to heavy precipitation. If it tracks somewhat northerly we may only see light amounts.

Several natural avalanches have been reported up to size 2.0, crown depths 100-120cm to ground with wide propagation, and running far. Explosive work in the past 24hrs has also produced up to size 2.5. These avalanches were failing on the predominant weak facet/crust/depth hoar combo above the ground.

Parts of the region have received up tp 60cm of new snow over the past 48hrs. Remember these amounts could differ locally inside your region. This new snow, wind and warmer temps have been the perfect recipe for slab development. There is likely variable wind slab formation on all exposed areas. The average, snowpack depths are looking like 70-90cm at treeline and probably 100-160. The basal layers in our current snowpack are proving to be very weak. Reports from the field are indicating that this facet/crust/depth hoar combo has reached its threshold and natural avalanche activity is happening. Avalanches are running to ground with wide propagation. The November 7th surface hoar layer is also down quite deep in the snowpack, ranging around the meter mark. There have been no confirmations of that layer being reactive, it seems like most things are running to ground or within the storm snow. The snowpack in the Purcells is highly variable in distribution. There may not be enough snow below treeline to create an avalanche problem, but problems from above could run into this elevation. Forecasters today will be posting a post storm strategy blog. This will entail different out comes of how fast or slow our snowpack may heal during and/or after these storms hit.