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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 27th, 2017–Mar 28th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Mt Hood.

You will need to keep a sharper than usual eye on weather conditions if you take a trip into the backcountry on Tuesday. Be prepared to ratchet back your plans if winds become stronger and snow or rain becomes heavier than you expect and you see signs of instability such as cracking of new snow layers or loose wet avalanches before Tuesday night.

Detailed Forecast

Warm front moisture should begin moving into the Northwest on Tuesday especially to the Olympics and north to central Cascades. But rain or snow and warming should also begin to increase over the south Cascades on Tuesday. The avalanche danger levels will be a moving target as they rise on Tuesday especially in the north to central Cascades.

Recent SW alpine winds have built wind slab on mainly NW-SE slopes. But watch for firmer wind transported snow that indicates wind slab on all aspects in areas of more complex terrain.

Loose wet avalanches should become possible in the near and below treeline at Mt Hood mainly due to light rain, solar effects and warming. Watch for wet surface snow deeper than a few inches, pinwheels or initial but growing natural releases.

Recent cornices are very large. Make sure to avoid areas on ridges where there may be an overhanging cornice as well as travel on steep slopes below cornices! Natural cornice releases and resulting slab avalanches are unpredictable. See a blog post regarding cornices here.

You will need to keep a sharper than usual eye on weather conditions if you take a trip into the backcountry on Tuesday. Be prepared to ratchet back your plans if winds become stronger and snow or rain becomes heavier than you expect and you see signs of instability such as cracking of new snow layers or loose wet avalanches before Tuesday night.

The avalanche danger should continue to significantly increase on Tuesday night.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

The first week or so of March was very cool and snowy.  NWAC stations at Mt Hood piled up about 6-7 ft of snow.

The 2nd week of March was equally active with non-stop Pacific frontal systems pummeling the PNW. Unfortunately, these systems delivered far more rain than snow. At least two regional avalanche cycles occurred during the stretch. Significant snowpack consolidation occurred over this period due to rainfall and warmer temperatures. 

This past week has also been active weather-wise, with another strong front on Sunday, but water amounts/snowfall totals have been slightly lower relative to the extreme wetness of the past few weeks. In the last 5 days ending Monday morning NWAC stations at Mt Hood have picked up another 2-2.5 ft of snow.

Recent Observations

On Monday the Meadows patrol reported touchy 6-12 in but up to 12-18 in wind slab on NE slopes near and above treeline. Surface loose wet snow was also becoming evident in the below treeline areas.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

 

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.

 

Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.

Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.

Elevations: Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

 

Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.

 

A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.

Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2