Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Cool and spring-like conditions Monday will maintain stable snow in the morning hours. Sunshine and daytime warming will help soften the surface snow making shallow Loose-Wet avalanches possible on some steep sun exposed slopes. Watch for new roller balls or wet surface snow deeper than your ankle, and avoid travel on those steep slopes.
Detailed Forecast
Spring-like weather should continue Monday with light winds, cool temperatures and plenty of sunshine.Â
About 4 inches of recent snow overlie a strong and supportable crust. Mostly stable snow in the morning hours will gradually weaken and melt through the day, making Loose-Wet snow avalanches possible on steep sun exposed slopes during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Watch for wet snow conditions developing through the day. Expect this to occur first on steep sunny slopes moving from eastern to southern to western aspects as the day progresses. If you see new loose wet avalanches, notice new roller balls, or experience soft surface snow deeper than your ankle, it’s time to change slopes. Use aspect to stay ahead of any loose wet avalanche problems. Be aware of high consequence slopes such above cliffs or creeks where even a small loose wet avalanche may have higher consequences.
Snowpack Discussion
About 4 inches of new snow was reported Sunday morning by NPS rangers. The new snow was low density and had little to no wind effects. The recent shallow new snow overlies a very strong and supportable crust.
Avalanches should be confined to shallow recent snow as a result of the strong melt-freeze crust.
On shaded slopes, a thinner melt-freeze crust formed last weekend. This crust is likely semi-supportable and may be covered by 3-5†of soft snow in some places. Soft snow will be most prevalent on shaded slopes at higher elevations.
Several layers exist within the snowpack. Currently we do not have any information suggesting that any of these layers are a potential problem.
Observations
NPS Rangers, reported 4.5" of new low density snow with no wind effects over the very strong crust Sunday morning.
NPS Rangers, reported a firm and very supportable surface crust Saturday morning.
NPS Rangers found a well settled snowpack on NE aspects around 5500' Thursday 3/15. They did not identify any layers of concern in the upper snowpack. No new or recent avalanches were observed.Â
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1