Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Monday: Expect clouds to build through the afternoon, with light southerly winds and freezing levels to 1500m. Tuesday: Unsettled skies with occasional light flurries and freezing levels reaching 1500m. Winds stay southerly and begin to increase later in the day. Wednesday: Flurries developing through the day with accumulations of 10cm. Winds continue to blow moderate from the south with freezing levels reaching 1000m.

Loose wet avalanches up to size 2.0 triggered by daytime heating have been reported, as well as isolated cornice releases to size 2.5. There was also 2 recent large natural avalanches reported; a size 3.0 from a northeast aspect in the Chilcotin area and a size 4.0 from a south aspect in the west side of the Duffey Lakes area.

The warm temperatures have brought us into a spring melt freeze cycle with the surface snow softening with daytime warming on solar aspects then crusting overnight as temperatures dip back below freezing. Large cornices loom in at ridgecrest. Recent storm snow (now more than 72 hrs old) varies significantly throughout the region with southeast areas (Coquihalla) receiving up to 60cm of new snow, while places like the Duffey Lake have seen considerably less. The new snow is settling quickly and bonding well, with occasianl windslabs lurking in immediate lee locations. Crusts down around 60cm can be found on solar aspects in the Duffey Lake, Chilcotin, and down closer to 100cm in the Coquihalla. Deep, persistent weak layers buried in early February are variable in distribution across the region but remain a key concern. In recent snowpack analysis this layer remains well preserved as surface hoar on north aspects and is a suncrust, facet combo on solar aspects. On both aspects we have reports of clean sudden planar shears at an average depth of 150cm. Although the likelihood of triggering this layer has decreased, the potential for surprisingly large avalanches remains.