Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Coast.
Confidence
Fair - Due to limited field observations for the entire period
Weather Forecast
Wednesday: Moderate snowfall with 5010cm of accumulation, freezing levels around 700m, and strong southwesterly winds easing throughout the day. Thursday: Moderate snowfall with another 5-10cm of accumulation, or more in the Coquihalla Pass area, freezing levels rising to 800m, or higher in Coquihalla Pass, and moderate southwesterly winds. Friday: Light snowfall with up to 5cm of accumulation freezing levels in valley bottoms but rising throughout the day, and moderate southwesterly winds.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche observations have been reported; however, heavy loading from snow and wind on Tuesday likely resulted in natural avalanche activity, particularly on leeward slopes.
Snowpack Summary
The Coquihalla Pass area received 90cm of new snow since Sunday, while the Duffy Lake area got about 50cm. Weaknesses linger within and under this storm snow. Of particular note is surface hoar buried late last week, which is likely well preserved and weak on sheltered open slopes treeline and below. The mid-pack seems to be well settled and strong, and possibly bridging deeper weaknesses. However, it wasn't too long ago when snowpack tests were producing moderate but sudden collapse results on the early November facet/crust combination near the base of the snowpack. Furthermore, favorable slab structure for step-down fractures can contribute to the persistence of this deep weakness.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 5
Storm Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 5
Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 6