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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 5th, 2022–Dec 6th, 2022
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

The Nov 17th persistent weak layer (surface hoar/facets/crust) is well within the range of human triggering. Assess the snowpack carefully before stepping out into large open slopes, especially around treeline.

Dry, loose avalanches may pose a problem in steep, confined terrain if more snow (>10cm) falls than forecasted.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday several sz 1-1.5 solar-induced loose dry avalanches occurred within the surface facet layer out of steep, rocky terrain. On Saturday Lone Pine produced a size 2 glide crack release which ran into the fan.

Whumpfing and remote-triggering continues on small, unsupported pillows below tree line on the Nov 17 persistent slab, both in GNP and adjacent to the region.

Snowpack Summary

Light fluff is falling onto a sugary, faceted surface. The Nov 17 persistent slab (surface hoar 5-30mm, facets, and crust) is down 50-80cm with the largest surface hoar present on sheltered slopes at treeline and below.

Snowpack depth is still variable (~120cm at treeline); early season hazards remain a concern.

Weather Summary

Cloud is spreading across the region, bringing 5-10cm of low-density snow and moderate West winds at ridgetop. Temps remain cool, with an Alp high of -13*C.

Continuing flurries, cool temps, and moderate SW winds prevail Wed/Thurs.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The Nov 17 surface hoar is down 50-80cm and most prevalent around tree line. The surface hoar continues to give 'sudden' results in snowpack tests.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Loose Dry

10cm of dry, low-density snow is forecasted to land on top of a faceted surface. Expect fast sluffing in steep, confined terrain, potentially digging deeper into the facets and accumulating enough mass to bury a person.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2