Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 27th, 2023 3:30PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada JMackenzie, Avalanche Canada

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Solar input on Tuesday could be a trigger for natural avalanche activity. Choose low angle slopes and avoid overhead terrain.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new was observed today, but observations were limited.

Several loose dry size 1-1.5 avalanches on all aspects occurred on Sunday in extreme unskiable terrain.

Several slab(30-40cm thick) avalanches size 1.5-2 occurred on Sunday on East to South aspects. This is likely on the March 12 facet/surface hoar/crust interface.

Snowpack Summary

As much as 40cm of recent snow has settled down to about 25cm overlying a variety of previous surfaces. So far there has been very little wind effect to the recent snow and it is staying dry on polar aspects. However, solar aspects have now seen several generations of sun crust, and this recent snow will become moist by late morning on Tuesday. Forecasters are tracking 3 main weak layers in the snowpack. First, a buried sun crust on solar, or a layer of facets on polar aspects, are producing some natural and human-triggered avalanches down between 20 and 40cm. Second, a weak layer formed back in late January has occasionally been active down 80 to 100cm. A very large human-triggered avalanche occurred on this layer late last week. And finally, the basal weaknesses remain. Deep persistent slab avalanches are still possible, especially in shallow snowpack areas. This deep layer may also be prone to "waking up" as slopes start to get more significant solar input. Forecasters continue to have zero confidence in larger terrain features, and we continue to avoid significant overhead terrain.

Weather Summary

It will be a cold start on Tuesday with temperatures dropping to the -20C range! The late March sun will pack a punch and it should be mostly clear skies with highs reaching -4C by the afternoon. The winds are expected to be light from the NW with no new snow expected.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
  • Minimize exposure to steep planar south-facing slopes - especially if they see sunshine.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

There are two layers of concern here: 1) a buried sun crust (on solar) and facets (on polar) down 20-40cm, and 2) a facet/depth hoar layer down 80-100cm that was buried mid season. These layers have become more active within the recent additional snow load, and are more prone to triggering during periods of intense solar radiation.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs

Thin, shallow areas or heavy triggers are what will set this layer off. Avoid terrain with those characteristics.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3.5

Valid until: Mar 28th, 2023 4:00PM