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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 18th, 2019–Jan 19th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

10-15cm of snow is forecast this weekend. Stay vigilant and out of the bigger terrain.  The basal layers are triggerable from thin weak snowpack areas.

Confidence

Moderate - Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

10-15cm of snow is forecast to fall over the next 24hrs.  Temps will remain around -5C and winds will continue to be moderate out of the SW.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural or skier triggered avalanches

Snowpack Summary

A light dusting of 3-4cm of snow now covers the Jan 17th surface hoar found up to 2100m and sun crusts on steep south and west aspects up to 2600m.  This new layer will be something to pay attention to as we move through winter.  Other wise the snowpack is pretty non-changing.  The upper snowpack has settled with isolated windslabs in alpine areas but the main concern is still the weak facetted base that is widespread throughout the region at all elevations.  Concern for triggering this base should be forefront in your mind in shallow or variable snowpack areas.  We are below average snowpack depth for this time of year and the 6 day wind warning earlier in December has scoured many areas that haven't recovered from the severe scouring.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Expect to find wind slabs at all elevations. The depth and sensitivity to triggering are highly variable across the forecast region.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Full depth avalanches failing on ground have been observed over the past few days.  Thin areas where you may trigger the basal layers should be avoided
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent slopes.Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3