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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 21st, 2025–Feb 22nd, 2025
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

The storm slated to hit Rogers Pass will heavily load the persistent weak layers and a natural avalanche cycle is expected.

Human triggered avalanches are very likely. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A Natural avalanche cycle is expected on Saturday.

Frequent Flyer in Connaught Creek ran Monday afternoon, size 2, across the skin track, burying ~15-20m of the uptrack up to 50cm deep. Trigger was likely strong solar radiation at ~1pm.

Neighboring operations, particularly to the west, are still reporting rider & remote triggered avalanches on the Jan 30th layer.

Snowpack Summary

20cm (plus another 35cm by Saturday afternoon) sits on top of a sugary layer of facets in the upper snowpack.

A weak layer of surface hoar, facets and/or suncrust (Jan 30th) is 20-50cm down. This layer failed easily in snowpack tests at 1700m on the Smart paths. Watch out when this layer gets overloaded!

The mid & lower snowpack is well settled & strong.

Weather Summary

An active weather pattern is developing with a juicy storm on the horizon.

Tonight 6cm. Alpine low -5°C. Ridge winds SW gusting to 40km/hr

Sat 35cm. Alp high -3°C. Ridge wind SW 30-60km/h. Freezing level (FZL) 1500m.

Sun 15cms. Alp high -3°C. Ridge wind SW 25-80km/h. FZL rising to 1500m.

Mon Trace precip. Alp high -4°C. Ridge wind light from the SW. FZL 1600m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Stick to non-avalanche terrain or small features with limited consequence.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Fresh snow and moderate to strong winds will be creating a new slab. This will be sitting on (yet another) weak layer of facets, expect this to be most reactive in immediate lee features. As the storm progresses the storm slab will become more widespread and reactive.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

The new snow overlays a buried persistent weak layer. This weak layer consists of surface hoar, facets and/or a suncrust. It will be most reactive where there is a settled, cohesive slab on top of a crust.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5