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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 7th, 2022–Jan 8th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Snow that accumulated above 1200 m may remain reactive.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with no precipitation, 40 km/h west wind, treeline temperature -7 C.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -5 C.

SUNDAY: Early-morning snowfall then clear skies, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 30 km/h south wind, treeline temperature 3 C, freezing level rising to 2300 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with snow and rain, accumulation 10 to 20 cm above 1300 m and rain below, 40 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature 0 C.

Avalanche Summary

It is anticipated that an avalanche cycle occurred on Thursday night, caused by rapid loading from rain and snow. Avalanche activity is expected to decrease into Saturday, although it may remain possible for humans to trigger slabs where Friday's precipitation fell as snow. At lower elevations, any snow that accumulates on Saturday may slide easily on the melt-freeze crust.

We'd appreciate any observations while you are out travelling on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Rain soaked the snowpack below around 1200 m, which subsequently froze into a hard melt-freeze crust. Above 1200 m, new storm slabs formed from about 50 cm of snow from Thursday night. 

Around 100 to 150 cm deep, a thin and hard melt-freeze crust may sit above sugary faceted grains that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack may be bonding well to these previous surfaces.

The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • The new snow may require another day to settle and stabilize.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New storm slabs and wind slabs likely formed above around 1200 m on Thursday night, as 60 cm of snow accumulated with strong southerly wind. Storm slabs are most likely found in terrain sheltered from the wind. Wind slabs may be present near the mountain tops in steep, lee terrain features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2