Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, a trace of snow possible, light southwest winds, alpine temperatures around -12 C.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, 0-2 cm of snow expected, light southwest winds trending to strong northwest at higher elevations in the afternoon, alpine temperatures cooling from -12 C to around -14 C.

Friday: Clear with a few clouds, no new snow expected, light west winds, trending to moderate northwest in the alpine, alpine temperatures around -11 C.

Saturday: Increasing clouds, a trace of snow expected, moderate southwest winds with strong gusts in the alpine, alpine high temperatures around -8 C.

On Wednesday, avalanche control triggered a very large (size 3) avalanche on a northwest aspect around 2050 m that released on the early December weak layer. On Tuesday, a large (size 2) avalanche was remotely-triggered on this same layer by a skier. This occurred on a west aspect near 2100 m and broke 100 cm deep. 

Earlier in the week, avalanche control in the north of the region produced small avalanches in the storm snow.

On Sunday, a small, skier remote triggered avalanche was reported that failed on a reloaded bed surface near the base of the snowpack on a north aspect in the alpine. There were other deep failures reported in this region about a week ago. This information is spotty, but it is consistent with a deep persistent problem that may be difficult to trigger. We're not done worrying about this one yet.

Up to 20 cm of snow has accumulated since Monday with periods of moderate wind at upper elevations. With snow available for transport, be aware of the potential for intermittent wind to form reactive slabs in lee terrain features. 

Below this layer, consolidated snow from the previous weekend storm sits over a substantial crust that formed in early December. This crust is 10-40 cm thick and can be found down 40-80 cm. It is present across aspects below 2300m. A thin layer of weak facets (sugary snow) can found above this crust that has demonstrated reactivity in snowpack tests and recent avalanche activity. 

A late October facet/crust layer of concern sits at the bottom of the snowpack above 1900m. Although this layer has been trending less reactive, it remains on our radar.

The snowpack depth at treeline is around 115-200 cm. The deepest snowpack can be found near the Bugaboos. 

• Pay attention to the wind, once it starts to blow fresh sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
• Use conservative route selection and resist venturing out into complex terrain.