Avalanche Forecast

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Heavy snowfall will continue into Monday. Tuesday evening we may see with a brief clearing. The next system arrives Wednesday night.

Sunday Overnight: Continued snowfall, 20-50 cm of accumulation expected. Freezing levels rising to around 1000m, but expect snowfall down to at least 700m, lowering into the morning. Strong to extreme southwest winds easing moderate to strong.

Monday: Snowfall will be heaviest in the morning with 20-40 cm of new snow accumulation, freezing levels around 500m. Winds continue from the southwest, easing moderate gusting to strong. 

Tuesday: Lighter snowfall in the morning, with the potential for another intense spike in the afternoon, 15-30 cm of accumulation. Moderate to strong southerly winds, freezing levels rising to 400m in the afternoon. Possible clearing overnight, freezing levels lowering to valley bottom.

Wednesday: A quieter day, cloud cover building into the afternoon as another system approaches from the pacific. Alpine temperatures around -8 C, rising into the afternoon. Light to moderate west winds at ridge-crest.

On Sunday, numerous natural, explosive triggered and skier-remote storm slabs occurred on the North Shore up to size 1.5.

Overnight, a widespread natural avalanche cycle likely occurred as freezing levels rose. We can expect natural activity to continue into the morning and human triggering to be very likely.

Heavy snowfall continues into today, in some areas upwards of a meter of new snow has fallen accompanied by rising temperatures and strong southwest winds. This is a recipe for very dangerous avalanche conditions. 

In open areas, strong southwest winds will be creating deep deposits of slab in lee areas. In sheltered areas, the new snow will form a touchy storm slab or loose dry problem where it is falling on an inherently weak layer formed by prolonged cold temperatures last week. This drought layer is comprised of a thin sun crust on solar aspects, near-surface facets and in isolated areas surface hoar.

The weekly North Shore Rescue conditions report paints a great picture of what the snowpack looked like before this intense storm, and how it might react to the new load.

The lower snowpack is well settled with several decomposing early season crusts. Snowpack depth at treeline ranges from 150-250cm. 

• Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
• Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
• Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.