Avalanche Forecast

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, isolated flurries with up to 5 cm of snow above 1500 m, moderate southwest winds, freezing level dropping to 1400 m.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, isolated flurries with up to 5 cm of snow above 1400 m, moderate southwest winds increasing to strong in the afternoon, freezing level dropping to 1200 m.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, 5-10 cm of snow above 1100 m, light south winds, freezing level dropping to 800 m.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, 5-10 cm of snow, light southwest winds, freezing level around 800 m.

Observers in the southern half of the region have reported no recent avalanche activity. Outside of the region near Thutade Lake, operators triggered two large (size 2) avalanches with explosives on Friday that released on weak snow at the ground. 

On Wednesday, a series of notable avalanches were reported near Ningunsaw. These were explosive-triggered and natural releases that resulted in very large deep persistent slab avalanches (size 3-3.5), also failing on weak snow near the ground. 

Our eyes and ears in the mountains are limited this winter due to fewer professional observations. If you go out in the mountains, please share your observations on the Mountain Information Network (MIN). Photos are especially helpful! 

 

Favored areas in the west and north of the region have seen 10-20 cm of snow (5 cm closer to Smithers), accompanied by light to moderate southeast winds. Trace amounts are expected to accumulate overnight and into Sunday as the freezing level drops back down to 1200 m. The new snow rests on a recent crust or hard, wind-packed snow that was buried earlier this week (Dec. 4). Where winds have drifted the recent snow into slabs on lee features, wind slab avalanches may be possible to trigger.

Extensive wind-scouring and several days of above freezing temperatures have promoted rapid settling in the snowpack. The bottom half of the snowpack reportedly consists of weak snow interrupted by a crust from early November. Further north and east in the region, weak snow developing near the ground has produced very large deep persistent slab avalanches. The extent of this snowpack structure in the region is not well-known. Smaller avalanches in the new snow may have the potential to step-down to deeper layers and to produce large, destructive avalanches. Large alpine slopes where the snow transitions from thick to thin are most suspect. 

Snowpack depths vary substantially with aspect, elevation, and wind exposure, ranging from 60 cm in eastern parts of the region to over 100 cm in western parts of the region. Lower elevation terrain may still be below the threshold for avalanches. 

• Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
• Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin, rocky, or variable snowpack.
• Use caution on large alpine slopes, especially around thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilities.