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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2017–Feb 15th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Avoidance of avalanche terrain is the key here. Even steep terrain below treeline can produce avalanches right now.

Confidence

-

Weather Forecast

Continued warm temperatures for Wednesday with alpine temperatures of -1c and strong SW winds.  Freezing level expected at 1900m on Wednesday.  Light flurries expected for Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

One incident with scramblers triggering an avalanche on an outlying peak of Mt. Charles Stewart.

Snowpack Summary

The warm temperatures are helping the upper snowpack to settle and producing moist snow on steeper solar aspects.  At tree line 50-60cm of settled snow is overlying a facet layer that is about 70cm down producing hard test results.  The bottom quarter of the snowpack is weak and consists of facets, depth hoar and the early season crusts.  Expect continued wind transport for Wednesday especially on lee features and cross loaded gullies.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are everywhere in the alpine.  Moist snow on steep solar aspects at all elevations
Avoid cross loaded slopes at or above treeline.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Cornices

Cornices are large and relatively new to the scene. Expect them to fail easily, especially as it warms up.
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger deep slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Many avalanches have stepped to this layer. Very large avalanches can be expected if this layer is involved. Large triggers(cornices) may wake this layer up.
Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4