Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 4th, 2015–Feb 5th, 2015

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Wind is the critical missing piece right now. Watch for local wind patterns and be on the lookout for fresh slabs.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Flurries will leave up to 8cm of new snow by tomorrow afternoon. Temps will rise slightly, but still max out at -4 in the alpine. The winds are expected to pick up at the 2500m elevation. They will average 25km/hr and gust up to 65km/hr, out of the west.

Avalanche Summary

There was one sz2 noted today on an alpine feature. It was approx 2300m, and an east aspect.

Snowpack Summary

Yesterday's fresh snow remains mostly untouched by winds. There are pockets of soft slab starting at upper treeline, but for the most part the new snow is still low density. The Jan 31st interface is the main concern right now. At treeline, it is down 15-25cm's. Tests revealed some facetting immediately below this Jan 31 crust (Compression Test Easy 10, SC). The lack of a windslab keeps this from being a major avalanche problem at the moment. On south aspects, the crust is up to 2400m and 1cm thick. On non-solar aspects the crust is up to 2200m. Windslabs quickly take over at that point and continue to peak height.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

With the incoming wind pattern, we can expect to see the windslab problem increase. Watch immediate lee areas in open treeline and alpine terrain.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

This problem identifies the weak base that is widespread. This layer is mostly bridged by the stiff upper pack, but triggering is still a possibility with either a large trigger, or a human trigger in shallow areas.

Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 4