Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 6th, 2018 4:48PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Loose Wet and Cornices.

swerner, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Forecast rain, snow and fluctuating freezing levels are the name of the game. Heads up as the avalanche danger increases with this new load.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Cloudy with precipitation amounts up to 10 mm. Freezing levels up to 2200 m. Ridgetop wind light with strong gusts from the southwest. Thursday: 5-10 mm expected. Ridgetop winds light with strong gusts from the southwest. Freezing levels near 1700 m and treeline temperatures near 2 degrees. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Freezing levels near 700 m and treeline temperatures falling to -2. Ridgetop winds light-moderate from the northeast.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Monday. Forecast precipitation amounts vary, but new storm slabs and loose dry avalanches may occur at upper elevations. Loose wet avalanches are likely at lower elevations.

Snowpack Summary

A mix of rain and snow will fall on a variety of old snow surfaces including crusts and moist snow at lower elevations. In high alpine areas like Sky Pilot and the Chehalis Range the more recent (saturated) snow has refrozen into a solid crust which means that the forecast snow will likely have a poor bond to the crust. At lower elevations rain amounts will saturate the snow surfaces further.The mid and lower snowpack are well consolidated with no significant layers of concern.

Problems

Storm Slabs

New storm slabs may be reactive at upper elevations. The new snow may have a poor bond to the underlying crust. Loose dry avalanches are likely from steep terrain features.

The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches are possible at lower elevations.

Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Cornices

Large cornices formed a week ago and they may remain fragile. These monsters could surprise with nasty consequences. Use extra caution around ridge crests.

Falling cornices may trigger avalanches on slopes below.Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 7th, 2018 2:00PM