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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 24th, 2018–Jan 25th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Continued loading of the storm slab along with warming temperatures will lead to an increasing avalanche danger through the day.

Weather Forecast

A pulse of Pacific moisture will bring rising temperatures, moderate S winds and upwards of 15cm of storm snow. Freezing level should reach 1600m today. Thursday, Friday we should expect cloudy with sunny periods a trace of snow and winds SW creeping into the moderate range at ridge top.

Snowpack Summary

Glacier Park has received over 140cm of snow in the last 2 weeks accompanied by significant wind; expect to find windslab in the alpine and exposed treeline. Warming trend with more snowfall will assist storm slab formation over the Jan 16 surface hoar. The Dec 15 layer is now buried over 1m, Jan 4th is down ~65cm and the Jan 16th is down ~50cm.

Avalanche Summary

Highway avalanche patrol observed several Natural avalanches to size 2.5 from various aspects. One of note was a natural size 3 from Jan 21st in Crossover path possibly cornice triggered. Our field team observed a size 2 slide on E aspect, 1800m on steep skiable terrain that looked to be tree bomb triggered.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs sit on a layer of surface hoar and/or a thin crust. They will be most sensitive in areas exposed to wind and unsupported convexities, where there's tension in the snowpack. Storm slabs triggered could step down to deeper weak layers.
Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

We are now in a lower likelihood/very high consequence scenario with the January 4th and the Dec 15th surface hoar layers. These layers should not be overlooked and could be sensitive to human triggering in thin areas.
Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3