Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 2nd, 2019 4:45PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
mconlan,
Avalanche Canada
Snowfall amounts for Thursday are uncertain. HIGH danger will likely result if you find more than 30 cm of accumulated snow. It will be a good time to remain conservative with route selection and avoid avalanche terrain if signs point to HIGH danger.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, strong southwest winds, freezing level below valley bottom.THURSDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level rising to 1300 m.FRIDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, moderate to strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 1500 m.SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light southwest winds, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1000 m.
Avalanche Summary
Skiers were capable of triggering small (size 1) wind slabs on Wednesday. The likelihood of triggering avalanches will increase with the incoming storm.
Snowpack Summary
Forecasted amounts are variable for Thursday, but expect new storm slabs to form with the new snow falling with strong southwest winds. In sheltered areas, new snow will add to the current 20 cm of snow that covers a weak layer of feathery surface hoar crystals, which was buried on Boxing Day.A persistent weak layer that formed in early December may be found 80 to 120 cm deep. This layer mostly consists of sugary faceted snow with some isolated areas also containing feathery surface hoar crystals. While professionals are still tracking this layer, it has not been reactive for some time now, except for the east side of the region near Corbin.Near the bottom of the snowpack lies a mix of crusts and facets that formed in late October/early November. Triggering an avalanche at the base of the snowpack is unlikely at this time, although the most likely place to do so would be from a steep rocky start zone in an area where the snowpack was shallow.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Forecasted snowfall will likely form fresh storm slabs over the day. The deepest deposits will be in lee terrain features near ridges. Note that triggered slabs could step down to deeper weak layers, particularly in the east of the region.
If triggered, slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, cracking, or avalanche activity.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 3rd, 2019 2:00PM
