Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Conservative terrain selection will be essential near and above treeline as human triggered avalanches are still likely. Choose moderately angled terrain and avoid wind loaded slopes, saving those steeper lines for another day.
Detailed Forecast
A period of moderate rain and snow at rising freezing levels is expected Wednesday night along with strong S-SW  ridgetop winds. Showers should taper quickly Thursday morning. A modest cooling trend is expected by early Thursday, however, the new storm related danger will continue through Thursday due to strong southwest winds loading lee slopes during showers Wednesday night.Â
Storm slab instabilities should be stabilizing, but may still be sensitive Thursday. Wind slabs will continue to build Wednesday night on lee slopes, facing generally NW-NE.  Earlier formed wind slabs may still be reactive Thursday and may add to the increasingly complex snow structure, by Thursday.
Conservative terrain selection will be essential near and above treeline to avoid wind loaded terrain and features. Choose moderately angled terrain and avoid wind loaded slopes, saving those steeper lines for another day.
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and Snowpack
Very mild weather a week ago allowed for the formation of a strong melt-freeze crust.
The last significant snowfall in the Olympics occurred Sunday, 2/28 through early Monday when about 12 inches of snow accumulated at Hurricane Ridge accompanied by a cooling trend. Moderate S-SW winds transported snow to lee slopes Sunday and Sunday night.Â
Fluctuating freezing levels Tuesday and light precipitation caused some rain or light snow at times through Tuesday with strong southerly winds. Â
The mid and lower snow pack along the west slopes should generally be a stable mix of crusts and layers of moist and rounded snow crystals.
Recent Observations
NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane Ridge Friday and found mostly consolidated stable snow. N to E slopes had areas of 25-30 cm of wind transported 4F snow well bonded to 1F melt form grains in the upper snow pack. South through west slopes were melted out in some places with shallower dense stable snow in others.
No recent observations are available for the Olympics, but rainfall on Tuesday likely caused a natural avalanche cycle.Â
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1