Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Mt Hood.
The avalanche danger should increase rapidly Thursday afternoon and evening as new wind slab builds on lee slopes near and above treeline. A cooling trend Wednesday night and Thursday should limit the loose wet problem to below treeline.
Detailed Forecast
An occluded front pushing through Wednesday night should be followed by light showers on Thursday morning and a cooling trend. A surface low tracking inland near the Oregon/Washington border mid-day Thursday should provide a burst of moderate snowfall in the afternoon and evening hours, followed by strong westerly winds.Â
New wind slab should build on lee slopes near and above treeline Thursday afternoon and evening. Watch for new firmer wind transported snow mainly on lee N to SE slopes near ridges.Â
Shallow storm slabs will be a secondary concern in less wind affected areas.Â
Despite the cooling trend, loose wet avalanches will remain possible below treeline Thursday especially on steeper slopes. Watch for wet surface snow deeper than a few inches that usually precede loose wet avalanches or other triggered or natural loose wet avalanches.Â
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and Snowpack
Dry weather with the warmest temperatures of the winter occurred February 7-10th with mild temperatures and high freezing levels.Â
A pair of warm fronts brought about 9-15 inches of new snow to Mt Hood from Thursday Feb 11th to Saturday Feb 13th.
Rain and and mild temperatures resulted roughly 2.5 inches of rain at the Mt. Hood NWAC stations over  2 days ending early Monday morning.  Mild and benign weather occurred Tuesday and Wednesday.Â
Recent Observations
The Mt Hood Meadows pro-patrol reported a widespread natural cycle of loose wet avalanches on Sunday morning. On Monday the Meadows pro-patrol reported no avalanches with consolidated snow and surface runnels up to 7000 feet.
On Tuesday the Meadows pro-patrol reported numerous large 1 foot wet slab avalanches in White River Canyon up to 100 yards wide at 5-6000 feet below a ridge with cornices. A small loose wet avalanche was also reported in Heather Canyon.
NWAC observer Laura Green reported no significant layers in a test pit near treeline, with a homogeneous upper snowpack consisting mainly of wet grains.Â
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.
Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1