Avalanche Forecast

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

The recent storm favored the nearby Mt. Baker area which received over 3in of water since late Thursday night. Snow levels fluctuated between 3500-5000ft. A mix of rain and very wet snow fell below 4000ft. The Heather Meadows weather station (4200ft) recorded 18in of new snow. Snow totals increase significantly as you gain elevation with up to 3ft of new snow measured at 5000ft. New snow totals in the West Central zone are highly variable. Expect more snow in the northern portion of the zone where heightened avalanche conditions exist at mid and upper elevations.

Natural and triggered avalanches were reported to the north in the Mt. Baker area on Saturday. Crowns from natural avalanches that likely ran in the past 24 hours were visible in alpine terrain on the north face of Mount Shuksan. Human-triggered storm slab avalanches occurred Saturday on north and east aspects near and above treeline (the largest of which broke 20in deep and 100ft wide). Small wet loose avalanches occurred on steep slopes near and below treeline. Overall, the new snow appears to be bonding well to the old snow surface. However, density breaks within the storm snow are reactive and still need time to heal.

January, 31, 2019

As we turn the corner to February we're coming out of a week-long high pressure ridge and into unsettled weather. The snowpack survived extremely warm temperatures and sunny skies over the week with minimal new wet avalanche activity reported. This break in the weather allowed for avalanche danger to steadily decline in all regions. Stormy weather starting February 1st once again elevated the avalanche danger.

We’ve heard a variety of stories from backcountry travelers over the past week. There have been reports of extremely firm slopes creating slide-for-life conditions. Others reported perfect spring like snow. Some encountered difficult breakable crust. And, for a lucky few, softer, drier, mid-winter snow has been found. A common thread in most zones is where precipitation falls as snow, it has landed on slick surfaces. It's time to pay attention to the interfaces formed by our recent rounds of precipitation.

A skier triggered storm slab in the recent snow in a steep southeast start zone at 5700ft. Lichtenberg Mtn. Feb 2. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

North-South:

While a high elevation rain event, around January 23rd, formed surface crust in many regions, it’s the constant melt-freeze cycles from the past week, that caused a divergence in the Northerly and Southerly snowpacks.

North: On shady slopes, things haven’t exactly been soft. The crust formed at the end of the last storm extends to high elevations (Mt. Hood 7000+ft, South Cascades 6500 ft, Passes and Central Cascades 6000 ft. and West-North 5500 ft.). Only areas in the East Cascades seemed to escape the wrath of this breakable crust. Without the help of the sun, shady slopes haven’t been softening even during this period of warm weather. Instead, the surface crust underwent some weakening. Observations found faceting on top of and below this crust. In some locations, this caused the crust to begin to degrade, becoming less supportive. Surface hoar has also been reported from the typical valley bottoms and sheltered terrain near water sources. At low to mid elevations, rain may have melted any weak snow on the surface. Slopes receiving significant dry snow should be suspect for a poor bond at the interface buried around February 1st.

Roller balls and loose wet avalanches on a sunny, southeast slope in recent snow on Lichtenberg Mtn. Feb 2nd, Stevens Pass. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

South: On sunny aspects, the sun drove warming and melting of surface snow. Long, cool, winter nights allowed for the surface to freeze again. This repeating melt-freeze pattern created a thicker, firmer, and more supportable surface. On many days, weak surface snow, such as near surface facets or surface hoar, melted during the day limiting its development. On cooler days, very firm travel conditions were reported. Crusts may provide a poor bond for any snow falling on them. Following the Feb 1st storm, the sun drove a round of small wet loose avalanches and storm slabs on upper elevations slopes that received enough accumulation.

 

Near surface facets developed on shaded snow surfaces in many areas. These facets are from near Mt Baker. Photo: Lee Lazzara

East-West:While we're tracking persistent weak layers (PWL’s), they haven't been the source of avalanches. It’s not uncommon for our east-side forecast zones to experience lingering PWL's. This season, we’ve also seen several different PWL’s in our western zones. This break in the weather gave the snowpack time to gain strength in all zones.

West: While you may find some weak snow in the upper few inches of the snowpack, the mid and lower snowpack has been found to be quite strong. Firm rounded grains, stout  crust, and strong frozen melt-forms make up the majority of the snowpack at this time.

East: The east-side snowpack continues to be highly variable. You may find deep strong snowpacks closer to the crest or you could encounter shallow weak snowpacks areas further east. While there are number of potentially weak interfaces, there are two more common layers we’ve got our eyes on.

1. January 22nd surface hoar and small facets. You can find these just under the recent storm snow, about a foot down. .

2. December 26th surface hoar. This layer can be found from 16” to 40” down and is still producing clean, planar shears with tests.

You are most likely to find these layers to be preserved on wind sheltered, shady, and open slopes above 5,500ft. You can find more defined weak layers where snowpack is less than 4 feet deep and variable especially east of Highway 97. Persistent weak layers have been “dormant” or unreactive during the week of high pressure. The latest storm has not been enough to re-activate theses weak layers. We’ll keep tracking them to watch their progression..

The lower eastern slopes and the Columbia River. Snow exists at low elevations, but snowpack depths are shallow. Photo: Matt Primomo