Avalanche Forecast

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast incoming weather.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Precipitation continues overnight with 10-25mm with strong to extreme southwest winds. Freezing levels soar above 2000m. 

WEDNESDAY: Strong southwest winds with freezing levels remaining above 2000m. 10-30cm is expected over the day with accumulations favouring the Bugaboos.

THURSDAY: Skies clear over the day with flurries tapering off. Winds ease to moderate westerlies. Temperatures drop, with freezing levels falling to valley bottom in the evening. 

FRIDAY: Cold and clear with alpine highs around -8. Freezing levels stay below 1000m with light to moderate southwesterly winds.

Monday November 29th saw multiple explosive triggered size 2 storm slabs near Golden. Numerous naturally triggered storm slab avalanches were observed near Toby Creek, up to size 2 from alpine features on north facing slopes. Explosives also produced a size 1 storm slab avalanche confirmed to have failed on the late November surface hoar layer in the Toby Creek area. This layer also produced multiple natural avalanches up to size 2 on Sunday. This surface hoar layer is believed to be widespread in the Toby Creek drainage area above 1600m.

 A report on the Mountain Information Network noted a widespread natural cycle was evident in the Quartz Creek area. 

Several more storm slab avalanches up to size 1.5 were observed in the Northern Purcells throughout this storm. 

Snowfall exceeds 80cm over the last week. More heavy precipitation and sustained strong winds will continue to build storm slabs over recently wind effected snow. Elevated freezing levels over the past week have created moist snow at lower elevations. 

A surface hoar layer has been observed down 30 to 40cm in the Toby Creek drainage in wind sheltered features. 

The mid-November rain crust exists throughout the region and sits down 30 to 60cm. It generally exists below 1900 m.

Several early season crusts exist throughout the lower snowpack and a late October facet/crust layer of concern sits at the bottom of the snowpack above 1900m. This layer has produced propagating results on recent tests, however data is sparse at this point in the season. 

Average snowpack depth at treeline is 100cm - 180cm, with the deepest snowpack found near the Bugaboos.

• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
• Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.