Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 6th, 2021 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada kdevine, Avalanche Canada

A few more flurries are expected for Saturday night and Sunday, maintaining the potential for fresh storm slabs to be reactive. Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, cracking and recent avalanches.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with clear periods and isolated flurries, up to 5 cm / moderate south wind / alpine low temperature near -7 

SUNDAY - A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries, up to 5 cm / moderate southeast wind / alpine high temperature near -6

MONDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light west wind / alpine high temperature near -5

TUESDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light west wind / alpine high temperature near -7

Avalanche Summary

On Friday there were several size 1-2.5 explosives triggered wet loose and wind slab avalanches reported north of Bear Pass. There were also reports of several explosives triggered size 2-3 storm slab avalanches that stepped down to the mid-February persistent weak layer in the Skeena corridor between Terrace and Prince Rupert.

On Thursday, there were numerous reports ranging from 12-36 hours old. There was a fairly widespread natural wet loose avalanche cycle reported at lower elevations throughout the region. There were also reports of widespread natural storm, and wind slab avalanches that ranged from size 1-3. Avalanches in the south of the region around Kitimat, Terrace, and along the Skeena corridor were generally in the size 1-2.5 range. The larger avalanches were observed further north in areas such as the Nass Valley, Bear Pass and closer to Ningunsaw. 

On Wednesday there were several size 1-2 explosive triggered storm slabs and wet loose avalanches reported in the north of the region, somewhat close to the Ningunsaw area.

On Tuesday, a notable natural size 3 persistent slab avalanche was reported on a south to southwest aspect along the Highway 16 corridor between Terrace and Prince Rupert. It is suspected to have failed on the mid-February persistent weak layer. 

Snowpack Summary

60-100 cm of recent storm snow has been redistributed into deep wind deposits on leeward slopes by sustained moderate to strong southerly winds. Massive cornices exist on ridgelines at treeline and in the alpine. 

There is now 100-200 cm over two persistent weak layers that were buried in mid-February and late January. These layers consist of surface hoar in areas sheltered from the wind, and facets that formed during the cold snap. These weak layers have been the cause of several large avalanches in the past 10 days.

There are currently no layers of concern in the mid and lower snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Recent storm snow accumulations are up to 60-100 cm in some parts of the region. Storm slabs may continue to be reactive to human triggering, especially in wind loaded areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

There is anywhere from 90 to 250 cm of snow above a persistent weak layer buried in mid-February. The concern now is mainly for storm slab avalanches stepping down to this deep layer, which would result in large, destructive avalanches. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Mar 7th, 2021 4:00PM

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