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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 14th, 2021–Nov 15th, 2021
Alpine
5: Extreme
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be extreme
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Avoid all avalanche terrain, just stay home, wax your boards, do your laundry, binge watch Lord of the Rings, etc.

Calm the early season stoke to get out... over 100cm in 48 hours with strong winds means the snowpack needs time to adjust.

Weather Forecast

The Atmospheric River is laying it on... thick!

Tonight a brief 'lull' with 14cm forecast, freezing levels steady around 1700m and wind 25 km/h from the SW with gusts to 60 km/h.

Monday could see another 45cm with freezing levels rising to 2000m and wind from the SW 40-60 km/h.

Tuesday, high pressure moves in bringing clearing skies and cooling temps.

Snowpack Summary

60cm in the past 24 hours! The new snow has fallen with moderate south winds and warm temperatures. Height of snow varies significantly with elevation from ~60cm @ Rogers Pass to ~200+cm in the Alpine. There are 2 prominent crusts to date, the Nov 5th buried ~70cm and the October crust that lies near the base of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Significant natural avalanche activity today from all aspects, with many avalanches large enough to bury a truck running down into valley bottoms. Expect this cycle to continue and grow in destructive potential as the snow continues to accumulate and winds spike.

Several large avalanches (sz 3-3.5) observed along the highway corridor.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

60cms of new snow and more on the way. Strong wind and warming temperatures have created storm slabs in the Alpine and exposed areas of Treeline. Expect storm slab size and distribution to increase considerably as the storm progresses.

  • Avoid avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely - Certain

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5

Loose Dry

Expect fast-moving loose dry in sheltered, confined, steep terrain features.

  • Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2