Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 22nd, 2019 4:07PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet.

swerner, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Even if the skies are cloudy you should avoid slopes that have wet and mushy snow, especially at lower elevations with little overnight re-freeze. Check out this LINK to see how easy it is to trigger a loose wet avalanche.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

A change in the weather pattern is approaching. FRIDAY NIGHT: 10 mm of rain to treeline with snow in the alpine. Ridgetop winds moderate from the South and freezing levels 1300 m. SATURDAY: Cloudy with some sunny periods. Freezing levels 1400 m and treeline temperatures near +4 degrees. Ridgetop wind light from the South.SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels 1500 m and treeline temperatures near +5. Ridgetop winds remain light.MONDAY: Cloudy with some light showers. Freezing levels 1800 m and treeline temperatures near +8 degrees.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Thursday. Natural loose wet avalanches up to size 1 were reported on Tuesday in the North Shore Mountains. Natural activity may start to taper off with cooler temperatures this weekend. Human triggered avalanches are possible especially at lower elevations from southerly aspects due to a lack of re-freeze.

Snowpack Summary

Snow surfaces are variable and the heat has likely eliminated any trace of cold snow except on high elevation north features. Melt-freeze conditions (more melt then freeze at lower elevations) exist on all other aspects and elevations and signs of snowballing, surface sluffing and loose wet avalanches are current.Deeper in the snowpack a layer of weak and sugary faceted grains sits on a melt-freeze crust about 50 to 120 cm deep. This layer is most prominent in the North Shore Mountains on north aspects. There have been no recent reports of avalanches or the reactivity of this layer in snowpack tests. However the layer can still be found. As the warm temperatures penetrate deeper and continue to destabilize the snowpack this layer may wake up initiating a larger persistent slab avalanche.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches may be reactive to human triggers especially on slopes where the snow did not freeze and a wet, weak snowpack exists. Cornices are soft and weak. You don't want to be under or near one of these looming monsters when they fail.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Avoid slopes that host wet, weak snow. You may be able to trigger a wet avalanche.Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on ridges.

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 23rd, 2019 2:00PM