Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - West.
Isolated loose wet snow avalanches should be possible on solar aspects above treeline, especially in the Mt Baker area where more recent snow is likely.
Detailed Forecast
A few lingering showers early Thursday should quickly give way to sunshine and warming temperatures. In any areas where snow from late Wednesday and Wednesday night accumulated, the rising temperatures and sunshine may lead to isolated wet snow avalanches, mainly on steep southerly facing slopes above treeline.Â
Elsewhere, there should be too little recent snow from Wednesday to cause a significant increase in danger.Â
Due to the low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation. Many areas below treeline do not have enough snow (new or existing) to pose an avalanche hazard.
Snowpack Discussion
A weak frontal boundary has spread some generally light rain in the region beginning Wednesday with mostly light rain as freezing levels remained near 7000 feet. Some light accumulations of new snow have likely accumulated above that elevation, especially in the Mt Baker area where greater amounts had fallen. This may have begun to build small, isolated storm slabs, though no field reports were received Wednesday.
The latest prior snowfall received in the Cascades occurred the last few days of February, followed by mostly mild sunny weather. This has created mostly strong melt-freeze surface snow with a few localized steep shaded slopes hanging on to some settled softer old snow.Â
With nearly no snowfall in January and February and none so far in March. The snowpack at lower elevations remains meager to non-existent. There have not been any reports of significant avalanches for some time.Â
The mid and lower snowpack west of the crest snow consists of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1