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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 7th, 2017–Jan 8th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Human triggerring of avalanches is still possible from thin snowpack locations, especially in wind affected areas.  Ice climbers watch for pockets of hard windslabs between pitches. 

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Temperatures on Sunday are looking at around -7C, with light SW winds.  Trace amounts of new snow are expected.

Avalanche Summary

No new slab avalanche activity was observed but there was a few small sz 1 loose dry avalanches out of steep unskiable terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Widespread wind affect in alpine areas and into open areas at treeline and below. Natural avalanche activity has began to subside but the snowpack is still within the range of being triggerred by a skier. Our main concerns continue to be thin windslabs in alpine areas that are overlying the 1218 facets down 30-50cm. This layer is easy to locate as its marked by a major density change in the snowpack. Lower in the snowpack is the 1112 crust. Not much natural avalanche activity has been observed on this layer but it is still within our minds. Thin snowpack areas will be the places werein you may be able to trigger this weakness.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

These slabs are failing down 30-50cm at the main density change. Human triggerring from a thin snowpack area is a definite possibility.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Isolated natural avalanches last week stepped down to this basal interface. Thin areas will be the likely trigger points wherein you may get the persistent and the deep persistent slab to fail.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3