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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 8th, 2012–Dec 9th, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Temperatures tomorrow should be a little better. Lots of folks out there today enjoying the good skiing. As the regular lines see more traffic, be sure to assess any new lines with a critical eye. MM

Confidence

Fair - Wind speed or direction are uncertain for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Temperatures are expected to climb in the next 24hrs (luckily!). Winds in the alpine will speed up to the strong range (<60 km/hr) and shift to a NW flow.  As for precip, we'll have to settle with what we have for now. Not much expected in K-Country for Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

Lots of loose dry avalanches in the last 24hrs. Most out of very steep(45 degree plus) terrain, all aspects and limited to the alpine. Cornice failure has been a theme lately. The most significant observation was on the North face of Mt. Bogart. A cornice triggered a size 3 avalanche out of high (3000m) alpine terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Surface facetting in upper 10cm's. Windslabs are buried beneath this about 15cm. The mid-pack is generally well settled and supportive. The Nov. 6 crust is down 70-80 at TL.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The slabs created by last week's wind event have become stiffer with the cold temperatures. These slabs are buried 15-20cms down in many places.
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Avoid cross loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Dry

Loose dry avalanches from steep unskiable terrain on all aspects, but more prominent on lee aspects. If the cold continues, expect these to run further and faster than expected.
Avoid travelling under cliffs that are exposed to sluffing from above.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This problem appears to need a large trigger to wake it up. Given the cold temps and recent cornice failures, triggering this layer could become a real possibility. Ice climbers, watch for falling daggers/ice as a potential trigger in specific areas.
Avoid steep slopes below cornices.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6