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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 31st, 2025–Feb 1st, 2025
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

The incoming storm will create dangerous avalanche conditions.

Stick to conservative terrain and limit overhead exposure.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle has started in the park, triggered by new snow and increased winds. The bulk of the avalanches Friday afternoon have been from steep rocky terrain on Mount Tupper and Macdonald. Most notable are a few size 3s that ran fast and far.

Neighbouring operations are reporting that the Jan 7th/9th surface hoar is starting to become reactive as a slab builds on top of it. This is the layer to watch out for.

Snowpack Summary

Recent 15-25cms of storm snow buries widespread surface hoar and sun crusts(on steep solar aspects).

Below this interface are firm, wind pressed surfaces in exposed areas and low density sugary snow in sheltered areas.

The Jan 7th layer is down 30-60cm, comprised of surface hoar (all aspects) and/or a thin crust on steep S aspects. The mid and lower snowpack are well bonded and strong.

Weather Summary

Moderate to heavy precipitation with strong winds through to Saturday.

Tonight 8cm. Alp Low: -10°C. Ridge wind SW 35 km/h. Freezing level (FZL) at valley bottom

Sat Mix of sun & cloud with convective flurries. 5-10cm. Alp low -12°C. Ridge wind SW 25-40km/h. FZL Valley Bottom(VB).

Sun Cloudy with sunny periods. Alp low -19°C. Ridge wind S 15-25km/hr, FZL VB

Mon Mix of sun & cloud. Alp high -19°C. Ridge wind SE 25km/h.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to buried surface hoar.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow is accumulating on top of a widespread weak layer and increasing winds will promote slab development. Snowfall amounts are uncertain, with potential for heavier than forecast snowfall amounts.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3