Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Coquihalla, Manning.
Reactive storm slabs are forming. Avoid avalanche terrain during heavy snowfall.
Areas with less than 15 cm of new snow by Friday afternoon will see lesser danger.
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanches have been reported. We are coming out of a long period of warm, dry conditions, and low avalanche danger. Now, with significant new snow and strong wind in the forecast, we anticipate avalanche activity will be likely on Friday.
Snowpack Summary
New snow is accumulating. By late Friday afternoon, storm totals are expected to reach 25 cm in the western parts of the region, accompanied by moderate southwesterly winds at ridgetops. The southeastern parts of the region near Manning Park, are expecting 10 to 15 cm. If these snowfall amounts play out, the avalanche danger will be lower there.
The new snow is falling on a hard crust, facets or surface hoar, and is expected to build reactive storm slabs. Our biggest concern will be how quickly the new snow will bond - we expect it to take several days or longer. Otherwise, the mid and lower snowpack remains dense, well-settled, and free of concerning layers.
Weather Summary
Thursday Night
Cloudy with 3 to 10 cm of snow - Highest amounts forecast for the northwestern parts of the region. 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C.
Friday
Cloudy with 5 to 20 cm of snow - Highest amounts forecast for the northwestern parts of the region. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperatures -2 °C. Freezing level 500 m rising to 1500 m.
Saturday
Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of snow. 30 to 45 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.
Sunday
Cloudy with 2 to 5 cm of snow. 10 to 15 km/h variable ridgetop wind. Treeline temperatures -12 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
- Use conservative route selection and resist venturing into complex terrain.
- Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
- Don't let storm day fever lure you into consequential terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Reactive storm slabs are expected in areas that recieve 20 cm or more of new snow,
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2