Forecast snow amounts are uncertain. If snow amounts at treeline exceed 20cm, the danger will likely be high there too.
Summary
Confidence
Poor - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain
Weather Forecast
Synopsis: A broad upper level trough settles in over the Southern Coast which should generate significant precipitation through the weekend.Saturday: Freezing Level: 600m rising to 1300 - 1500m Precipitation: 5-15mm | 5 - 20cm; Treeline Wind: Light, South | Ridgetop Wind: Strong, SouthSunday: Freezing Level: 500m rising to 1200 - 1500m Precipitation: 2-5mm | 2-10cm; Treeline Wind: Moderate, SW | Ridgetop Wind: Strong, SWMonday: Freezing Level: 400m rising to 1400 - 1800m; Precipitation: Trace; Treeline Wind: Light, SE | Ridgetop Wind: Light, SE
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche activity on Thursday was limited to point releases out of steep solar terrain. These loose snow avalanches ran to size 1.5, involving the upper 20 cm of the snowpack.
Snowpack Summary
There may be some areas where the recent snow does not bond well to melt-freeze crusts on solar aspects. The forecast new storm should add a new load above these weak bonds and may be sensitive to triggering from light additional loads like skiers or riders. The persistent weak layers from early March and early February continue to be a concern. The March weak layer of wind-scoured crusts, melt-freeze crusts, and/or surface hoar is reported to be down 70-80 cm. The February crust/facet/surface hoar layer is now deeply buried down 150-250 cm and may still be triggered by heavy loads like cornice falls or storm slab avalanches in motion. Long fracture propagations resulting in very large avalanches are possible with this layer. Avalanches releasing on these layers may step down to the ground during periods of strong solar radiation or warm spring rain.
ghelgeson,
Avalanche Canada
