Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 7th, 2016 8:07AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Northwest Inland.

Warming forecast for the next few days will destabilize the snowpack. Use extra caution if the sun makes an appearance.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

On Monday, expect 1-5mm of precipitation with freezing levels climbing from 1600m to 2100m throughout the day. On Tuesday the region will see a mix of sun and cloud with freezing levels shooting to 2800m. Light snowfall is forecast for Wednesday. Ridgetop winds are forecast to remain strong from the southwest for the entire forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

In the Smithers area on Saturday there were reports of a few naturally triggered wind slab avalanches to size 2 on east and southeast aspects at about 1700m. Continued snow and wind on Sunday will promote ongoing wind slab activity with the potential to step down to deeper, more destructive persistent weak layers.

Snowpack Summary

New snow and wind on Sunday has created reactive new wind slabs throughout the day adding to an ongoing wind slab problem. New snow accumulations will also add mass and reactivity to a developing slab which overlies recently buried surface hoar. This layer was observed in the Hankin area and may exist in many other places. The early or mid January surface hoar layer is generally 30-50 cm deep, although it may be buried by up to 100cm of snow in the far west of the region. Observers have found this persistent weakness on all aspects and at all elevations. It consistently produces moderate "pops" results in snowpack tests. Below this, the Boxing Day surface hoar problem may also be lurking. The mid and lower snowpack is generally quite weak and faceted, especially in lower snowpack areas such as the Babines.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong winds and snow continues to form new wind slabs which have been failing naturally in recent days. Watch for triggering in lee features at treeline and in the alpine.

Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

In deeper snowpack areas, surface hoar which was buried in early January is ripe for human triggering. Forecast warming will make avalanches failing at this interface more likely.

Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.>Be aware of the potential for large, widely propagating avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Loose Wet

Warming forecast for the next few days will promote loose wet avalanche activity in steep lower elevation terrain. Destructive wet slab avalanches are also possible. Use extra caution if the sun makes an appearance.

Be cautious of wet sluffing in steep terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Feb 8th, 2016 2:00PM