Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5-15 cm. Ridge wind strong to extreme, southwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1200 m.SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation up to 5 cm. Ridge wind strong easing to moderate, southwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1700 m.SUNDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 4-8 cm. Ridge wind light to moderate, southwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1700 m. MONDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind light, east. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1500 m.

Wednesday there was a report of an icefall-triggered size 1.5 wind slab (50 cm deep and 50 m wide) on a north aspect at 2400 m, as well as small, loose wet sloughs out of steep rocky alpine terrain.On Tuesday a skier intentionally triggered a size 1 wind slab 20 cm in depth on an east facing feature at 2400 m. Explosive control work produced numerous avalanches to size 2.5 in north-facing, lee terrain. On Monday intense wind loading produced natural wind slab avalanches to size 2 on north facing terrain around 2400 m. Solar radiation (direct sun) also produced natural storm slab and loose wet avalanches to size 2.5 on on a variety of aspects between 1700 and 2600 m. We received the following information second hand, and all the details may not be accurate. On Sunday six riders were involved in an avalanche up Doctor Creek. One was stuck, the second went to help and also got stuck, the third rode up the slope to help and triggered an avalanche that buried all three, "up to their faces." The riders credit airbag packs with saving their lives and although one sled was wrecked, the group was able to extricate themselves. The slope was reportedly north facing and failed as a wet slab.

A thin surface crust is now present on all aspects to at least 2000 m. This crust likely goes even higher on south facing aspects, while 5-25 cm of cold snow can be found on high elevation north facing features. There are now a few different crusts within the top 40 cm of the snowpack, with only the mostly recently buried crust posing a concern in wind-loaded areas.There is some lingering concern around the mid-March Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) in the alpine where it is found 40 to 90 cm below the surface. This buried crust/surface hoar interface was widely reactive last week, but has not produced any avalanche activity in the last few days. It is likely trending towards dormancy, but we need to keep it in the back of our minds as it is capable of producing large avalanches should it be triggered (think step-down from a surface avalanche or cornice collapse)Deeper persistent weak layers from December and January are dormant at this time.