Avalanche Forecast
Jan 6th, 2019–Jan 7th, 2019
Alpine
3:
Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2:
Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2:
Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2:
Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2:
Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2:
Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Regions: Cascades - West.
The Bottom Line: Pay attention to areas where the wind drifted the new snow into firmer and thicker slabs. It’s these wind affected areas where you will be more likely to trigger an avalanche. If you see drifted snow, fresh cornices, or snow pillows you can stay safe by avoiding nearby wind loaded slopes greater than 35 degrees.
Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion
We received reports of several human triggered avalanches from adjacent zones on Sunday. In the Mt Baker backcountry, these avalanches occurred within the new snow and were generally small. However, one larger avalanche on Mt Herman reportedly ran for several hundred feet down the slope. We saw two common themes in these human triggered avalanches. One, they occurred in areas where the wind drifted the snow into slightly firmer slabs. Two, many of the avalanches were triggered near convex rollovers in the terrain.
At lower elevations, recent and significant liquid water will make travel challenging. Watch for glide cracks, exposed rocks and creeks, and expect a refreezing upper snowpack.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
The snow piled up in the adjacent West North zone Saturday night and Sunday. Observations found 1-1.5 feet of new snow. Radar imagery indicates that similar amounts of precipitation fell in the Mountain Loop area. In the Mt. Baker backcountry, the wind affected the surface snow forming slightly thicker and firmer slabs in most areas. You want to pay close attention to these wind affected areas on Monday. Look for uneven snow surfaces, snow drifts, or fresh cornices. Sometimes you can feel the wind slabs under you. The snow may feel firm or hollow as you travel. All of these clues will let you know you could trigger wind slabs on nearby steep slopes.
Expect the avalanche danger to be more pronounced at higher elevations. Strong winds likely formed thicker more dangerous slabs in the alpine. Hard slabs can be difficult to assess. They can lure out onto a slope before they fail. If you are traveling in alpine areas, give these wind loaded slopes a wide berth.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 2