Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 3rd, 2022 3:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Loose Wet and Cornices.

Avalanche Canada JMinifie, Avalanche Canada

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Sunny days and high freezing levels are in our future. This is a good time to be thinking about overhead exposure. The snowpack doesn't like heat so consider travelling during the cooler parts of the day and give cornices a wide berth. 

Summary

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

    

The sun will come out and freezing levels will rise through the weekend. 

Thursday night: Mainly clear. No precipitation. Light winds from the south. -7°C in the alpine.

Friday: Mainly clear. No precipitation. Light winds from the south. A high of 0°C and a low of -7°C in the alpine. Freezing levels 1500m. 

Saturday: Mainly clear. No precipitation. Light variable winds. A high of +2°C and a low of -7°C in the alpine. Freezing levels will rise to 1700m.

Sunday: Mainly clear. No precipitation. Light variable winds. A high of +3°C and a low of -4°C in the alpine. Freezing levels are forecast to rise to 2200m or higher. 

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche professionals in the region continued to report isolated slab avalanche activity to size 2 on Wednesday. These isolated avalanches were triggered by ski cuts and explosives. 

This MIN describes loose wet avalanches occurring at treeline elevations west of Shames. 

Snowpack Summary

20-40cm of Storm snow is settling into a slab with warming temperatures. Below 1500m the upper snowpack is wet in most areas and forming a crust with overnight cooling. The thick, mid-February crust is now buried 40-60cms and while we have not observed avalanches on this layer, it continues to draw suspicion.

The lower snowpack is being effectively bridged by the mid-February crust and avalanches are not expected to be triggered below this layer at this time. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • Firm cornices can pull back into flat terrain at ridgetop if they fail.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

As freezing levels rise over the weekend, storm slabs may become more reactive. Assess large, connected features closely and have a plan B if things feel too warm. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Almost Certain

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Cornices

An icon showing Cornices

Cornices can be unpredictable so whether you are travelling above or below them, they should be given ample distance and treated with respect. 

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 4th, 2022 3:00PM