Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 8th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.
Aaron Beardmore,
Recent snow, warming temps and wind from the SW have contributed to deteriorating conditions. Wind slabs in the alpine and at treeline will be primed for human triggering on Sunday. The Mt Stephen avalanche closure zone is CLOSED on Sunday.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Warming temperatures (-5 valley; -8 ridge) and strong to extreme wind from the SW overnight on Saturday into Sunday. Minimal amounts of new snow are expected.
Snowpack Summary
15-30cm new snow with winds strong out of the S-SW. Wind and storm slabs building at treeline and in alpine areas as that loose snow gets blown around. These slabs may bond poorly to the underlying facets formed by the cold snap. The Dec 2 crust/facet interface is down 80-130 cm.
Avalanche Summary
Lake Louise patrol triggered wind slabs up to size 2 with explosives, up to 40cm deep. Additionally they were able to ski cut small size 1 loose dry avalanches at treeline. Two small size 1 avalanches were observed near Serac Creek in Kootenay. It appeared to be a steep side wall gully. Approx. 40cm deep and 20m wide.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday
Problems
Wind Slabs
Moderate SW wind has been loading lee areas in the alpine and tree line on Saturday afternoon. This, coupled with a slight rise in temperature will increase the likelihood of human triggering.
- Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Dry
New snow, wind and a faceted snowpack will combine to increase the likelihood of loose dry avalanches in steep terrain on Sunday. The loose dry avalanches are not expected to be big, but limit your exposure to terrain traps.
- On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.
- Good group management is essential to manage current conditions safely.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 9th, 2022 4:00PM
