Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 8th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

Aaron Beardmore,

Little Yoho.

Recent snow, warming temps and wind from the SW have contributed to deteriorating conditions. Wind slabs in the alpine and at treeline will be primed for human triggering on Sunday. The Mt Stephen avalanche closure zone is CLOSED on Sunday.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Warming temperatures (-5 valley; -8 ridge) and strong to extreme wind from the SW overnight on Saturday into Sunday. Minimal amounts of new snow are expected.

Snowpack Summary

15-30cm new snow with winds strong out of the S-SW. Wind and storm slabs building at treeline and in alpine areas as that loose snow gets blown around. These slabs may bond poorly to the underlying facets formed by the cold snap. The Dec 2 crust/facet interface is down 80-130 cm.

Avalanche Summary

Lake Louise patrol triggered wind slabs up to size 2 with explosives, up to 40cm deep. Additionally they were able to ski cut small size 1 loose dry avalanches at treeline. Two small size 1 avalanches were observed near Serac Creek in Kootenay. It appeared to be a steep side wall gully. Approx. 40cm deep and 20m wide.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate SW wind has been loading lee areas in the alpine and tree line on Saturday afternoon. This, coupled with a slight rise in temperature will increase the likelihood of human triggering.

Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Loose Dry

New snow, wind and a faceted snowpack will combine to increase the likelihood of loose dry avalanches in steep terrain on Sunday. The loose dry avalanches are not expected to be big, but limit your exposure to terrain traps.

On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.
Good group management is essential to manage current conditions safely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Valid until: Jan 9th, 2022 4:00PM