Avalanche Forecast

High - We are confident the snowpack will rapidly lose strength with the arrival of the forecast weather. We are confident a natural avalanche cycle will begin shortly after the arrival of the incoming weather.

With lots of incoming moisture and warm air, freezing levels and precipitation amounts vary greatly across the region, and may be unpredictable. Keep an eye on your local weather forecasts, and be ready for conditions to change rapidly.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow and rain. accumulation 10 to 15 cm. Closer to the coast in the south end of the region, we could see up to 30 mm of rain beow 2000 m. Strong southwest wind. Freezing level rising overnight: 1000 m to 1500 m in the north end of the region, and east of Terrace. Up to 2500 m in the south end. 

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. 25-35 cm of snow expected in the north of the region, and east of Terrace. In the south end of the region expect 60 mm of rain to mountain top. Strong to extreme southwest wind. Freezing level 1000 m to 1500 m in the north end of the region, and east of Terrace. Up to 2500 m in the south end.  

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. 15-30 cm of snow expected overnight at higher elevations, with a possible trace through the day. Strong northwest wind, decreasing to moderate through the day. Freezing level dropping to around 800 m.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. No new snow expected. Moderate southwest wind trending to strong west in the afternoon. Freezing levels rise to 1500 m. 

On Wednesday, we expect heavy precipitation, rising freezing levels, and strong wind to cause a widespread natural avalanche cycle. 

No new avalanches were reported before 4 pm on Tuesday.

On Monday, several natural and rider triggered wind and storm slab avalanches were reported across the region up to size 2.

 

Many storm and wind slab avalanches were observed over the weekend, often releasing naturally during the stormy weather. Check out this MIN for examples near Shames. At low elevations, small loose avalanches were reported during periods of warm weather and rain. 

As a wet, warm storm hits the region, 24 hour snowfall could be up to 60 cm, building reactive storm slabs. Freezing levels are expected to rise rapidly, especially in the south end of the region, so expect heavy rain to be falling on dry snow right to mountain top around Terrace and Kitimat. 

Recent snowfall was consistently around 10 to 30 cm of snow per 24-hour period, with associated strong southwest wind. Introducing rain to the snowpack will make existing slabs more reactive, and will make wet loose avalanches possible in previously unconsolidated snow.

Also expect cornices to be very large and touchy. 

New snow will sit on previous storm snow that has totaled around 50 to 80 cm since early February above around 800 to 1000 m. All of this February snow may sit on a weak layer of surface hoar crystals, particularly around treeline elevations in terrain features sheltered from the wind. This layer may be found immediately above a hard melt-freeze crust.

Deeper in the snowpack, another surface hoar layer from mid-January may be found around 80 to 120 cm deep at higher elevations in sheltered terrain. This layer is most problematic where it overlies a hard melt-freeze crust.

• Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
• Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
• Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.