Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Saturday night: Patchy cloud / light southwest winds / alpine low temperature -18

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, isolated flurries / light southeast winds / alpine high temperature -12

Monday: Cloudy with sunny breaks / light east winds / alpine high temperature -11

Tuesday: Cloudy with sunny breaks / light southeast winds / alpine high temperature -10

Outside of a handful of small size 1-1.5 wind slabs, a few cornice failures, and loose dry sluffing in steep and southerly terrain, there have been no notable avalanche reports in the region.

On Wednesday, operators in neighboring Glacier National Park reported several large (size 2-2.5) wind slabs releasing naturally on a variety of aspects (north, east, and south). Two natural cornice failures were reported in Glacier National Park on Wednesday releasing above north-facing slopes.

This MIN from Clemina Creek last weekend reports that the Jan 11th surface hoar was cracking and propagating in sheltered treeline and below treeline areas where it was buried 40-50 cm deep. Now less reactive, this is a layer we will continue to monitor.

Previous winds scoured snow surfaces, loaded cornices, and formed stiff wind slabs in the alpine and around treeline. A thin sun crust may be found on steep solar aspects. Clear skies and cold temperatures are encouraging surface hoar growth and surface faceting. Below 1600 m, 20-30 cm of snow is settling above a decomposing melt freeze crust. 

Observers continue to find a preserved layer of surface hoar down 40-70 cm in sheltered, open slopes at and below treeline. Recent snowpack tests have produced sudden results on this layer, other tests have found it unreactive, as such it continues to warrant slope-specific assessment. 

Deeper in the snowpack, a couple of older persistent weak layers may still be identifiable from late and early December, consisting of surface hoar and a crust with faceted snow and buried anywhere from 100-200 cm deep. Prolonged periods of inactivity and unreactive snowpack test results suggest that these layers have trended towards dormancy. 

• Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
• Large cornice falls are dangerous on their own.
• Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.