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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 25th, 2021–Jan 26th, 2021
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Coast.

Strong winds on Tuesday are expected to form fresh and reactive slabs over a buried weak layer. Stick to conservative terrain and avoid overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries, up to 5 cm / light to moderate south wind / alpine low temperature near -5

TUESDAY - Cloudy and sunny periods / strong southeast wind / alpine high temperature near -2 

WEDNESDAY - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries / light southeast wind / alpine high temperature near -3 

THURSDAY - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries / light southeast wind / alpine high temperature near -1

Avalanche Summary

Strong winds on Tuesday are expected to create ongoing reactive avalanche conditions, especially since the new snow sits on a prominent weak layer.

Several human-triggered avalanches up to size 2 were reported on Monday, including one that was triggered remotely (from a distance). It is expected that there were also natural avalanches occurring during the day on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

30-40 cm of new snow sits on a crust that also has weak facets and surface hoar crystals on top of it in many areas, especially on north aspects. Strong wind on Tuesday is expected to form fresh slabs and the new snow is not expected to bond well with the snow below it.

Click here to watch North Shore Rescue's recent snowpack conditions update, which includes a great explanation of persistent weak layer formation.

Terrain and Travel

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Keep your guard up at lower elevations. Storms slabs have been reactive at all elevations.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

30-40 cm of new snow sits on a weak layer that consists of a crust, with facets and/or surface hoar on top of it. Strong winds are expected to form reactive slabs. This weak layer will likely continue to produce avalanches for longer than what is typical after a storm on the South Coast.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely - Almost Certain

Expected Size: 1 - 2