Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

MONDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with scattered flurries, up to 5 cm / light southwest wind / alpine low temperature near -10 

TUESDAY - Cloudy with flurries, 5-10 cm / southwest wind, 15-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near -6 

WEDNESDAY - Mainly cloudy with flurries, 5 cm / southwest wind, 20-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near -6 

THURSDAY - Cloudy with flurries, 5 cm / light southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -5

Over the past few days there have been a few reports of small avalanches above the recently buried surface hoar and crust layers. These include several dry loose avalanches in steep terrain and a size 1 skier triggered avalanches in Glacier National Park (see the photo in this MIN report). While these avalanches have limited destructive potential, we anticipate this developing into a more concerning problem with the arrival of more snow.

Up to 15 cm of new snow is expected between Monday night and Tuesday afternoon, bringing total recent snowfall amounts to 15-35 cm. This snow sits on a weak layer that exists as either a crust or feathery surface hoar. Most areas in the region are reporting that the new snow sits on a crust, while areas with surface hoar are more likely to be found at upper elevations in the Selkirks.

A buried crust can be found in the lower snowpack (50-150 cm deep) with some reports of weak snow around this crust. There have been no recent avalanches reported on this layer, however occasional test results indicate that it may be reactive to human triggers on shallow rocky features at upper elevations.

• Investigate the bond of the recent snow before committing to your line.
• Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
• Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.