Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 18th, 2014 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Loose Wet and Persistent Slabs.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

The natural avalanche cycle has subsided but conditions remain ripe for human triggering. The basal weakness is a major concern. Terrain choices should be limited to low angle, well supported terrain with no overhead hazard.

Summary

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Mostly sunny skies with slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday. Winds will be light to moderate from the West to NorthWest. No precipitation expected for at least a week.

Avalanche Summary

Pin-wheeling and small loose wet avalanches were observed today.

Snowpack Summary

No new snow overnight. Moist snow to 2400m on steep solar aspects. Surface growing in protected areas below treeline. Wind slabs in Alpine and Treeline areas persist and are sensitive to human triggering in steep and unsupported terrain. Basal facets/depth hoar remains a concern for full depth releases and wide propagations.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs up to 40cm thick are being encountered in immediate lees along ridge lines and in cross loaded features. Most of the recent natural avalanche activity has been obs in Alpine.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Loose Wet

Although temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday, loose wet slides out of steep solar aspects are still possible. Some slides are triggering small slabs on the underlying slopes.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Avalanches are often stepping down to the basal October layers and involving the entire winters snowpack. In some areas a dense wind slab overlies this deeply buried weak layer, so the possibility for large and destructive avalanches exists.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Jan 19th, 2014 2:00PM