Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 12th, 2018 3:40PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

michael.olsthoorn, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Natural avalanches have slowed down but human triggering is still a real concern.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Wind speed and direction is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wind, wind wind...Tuesday if forecast to be cloudy with scattered flurries and an alpine temperature of -6c. The interesting part of Tuesday is that the wind will be westerly at 60km/h with gusts to 100km/h+

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed. Natural avalanches were still happening on Sunday so human triggering is still pretty high...

Snowpack Summary

A profile at 2200m showed the Jan. 18 surface hoar layer is down 40cm, Jan 6 surface hoar layer is down 60cm and the Dec 15 facets is down 90cm. The surface hoar layers(Jan 18 and Jan 6) are not producing any test results. The Dec 15 facets layer was producing a hard compression test and was sudden planar in nature on loose facets. The November crusts have turned into facets at this elevation. The bottom 70cm of the snowpack consists of facets which is about half of the snow pack at this elevation.The bigger concern is still for human triggering at tree line and in the alpine. Tuesday is forecast for strong winds along with strong gusts; so I bet wherever there was no wind slab, there will be lots of it. Stay tuned...

Problems

Wind Slabs

Found at treeline and above up to 50cm thick. They are being found on all aspects due to reverse loading patterns of recent winds.

If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

Recent avalanche activity have stepped down with fractures up to 200cm thick

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3.5

Valid until: Feb 13th, 2018 2:00PM