jeremy.mackenzie, Avalanche Canada

Kananaskis Country Avalanche Forecast

Mar 25th, 2012 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet, Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Heavy snowfall and/or rain are forecast for Monday with freezing levels as high as 2300m. If these weather conditions occur, avalanche hazard will rise rapidly through the day. Pay attention to localized conditions.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

A warm storm is expected on Monday bringing 25 to 30cm over a short period of time with freezing levels starting at 2300m in the morning and dropping through the day. Precipitation could fall in the form of rain. Winds are likely to be moderate from the NE.

Avalanche Summary

One size 1.5 solar triggered slab from a steep SE aspect below treeline. Minor pin-wheeling observed on steep solar aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Surface hoar growth overnight up to 10mm on sheltered aspects. Storm snow is settling. February surface hoar is buried 130cm at treeline and is still reactive to stability tests in the hard range. Midpack is well consolidated.

Problems

Loose Wet

Likelihood

Very Likely - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Heavy wet snow and/or rain are expected on Monday. Avalanche danger will rise rapidly if this weather condition comes true. Loose wet avalanches are expected, especially at lower elevations.

Aspects:

All aspects.

Elevations:

All elevations.

Storm Slabs

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Storm slabs are expected to begin forming with the arrival of the warm snow and moderate NE winds on Monday. Reverse wind loading is a strong possibility. Rapid loading is likely according to the weather forecast.

Aspects:

North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations:

Alpine, Treeline.

Persistent Slabs

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 6

The Feb surface hoar is buried 120-150cm at treeline. Field tests are showing that this layer is strengthening and becoming harder to trigger, but shallow snowpack areas are still a concern. Cornices or smaller avalanches could trigger this layer.

Aspects:

All aspects.

Elevations:

All elevations.

Valid until: Mar 26th, 2012 9:00AM