We are expecting a significant rise in avalanche danger (if the forecasted snow fall actually arrives!). Very conservative route selection is in order.
Summary
Confidence
Low - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Wednesday will be warm and very windy with a mainly cloudy sky. The big unknown is the amount of snow fall. Some models are calling for almost no snow accumulation, while other models are predicting 15 to 20cm by Wednesday afternoon. Most models agree that Thursday and Friday will be cloudy with only light precipitation.
Avalanche Summary
Two naturally triggered size 2.0 slab avalanches were observed today. One occurred on a West aspect of Mt Engadine in an Alpine feature. The other avalanche occurred at Treeline on a steep North aspect. Both of these avalanches appeared to have failed on the basal facets and ranged between 60 an 80cm deep.
Snowpack Summary
Trace amounts of new snow have fallen in the past 24hrs and very light flurries were falling this afternoon. The snowpack is settling due to the recent warm temperatures. Surface snow was moist on solar aspects up to 2100m and this may extend higher in elevation (this is unconfirmed). Intense snow transport was observed at ridge crest and it is very likely that further wind slab development has occurred in the Alpine. The remainder of the snowpack remains weak and facetted, and it is likely that an avalanche initiating in the upper snowpack will steep down to the basal layers.